Finding winners in the horse racing game is never easy and has actually become more tricky with the implementation of 'ratings-based racing' over the last 18 months. Ratings based racing is forcing punters to look more closely at weights and measures in lining these gallopers up.
in late 2006, a review of the possibility of implementing ratings-based racing, found that Victorian trainers in all corners of the state overwhelmingly supported the retention of Ratings Based racing. This is highlighted by the fact that 94% of trainers in Victoria supported the keeping this form of handicap racing.
Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by "discretionary" handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse's weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a "ratings" adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.
In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".
Racehorses can fluctuate their form just like human athletes can. Unfortunately though, racehorses cannot talk. So we, as punters, are required to recognise signals and signs from horses at either their previous run, or pre-race, that indicate what stage physically and mentally they are at, in order to find a winner. For example, a horse charges home in a slowly run race early in it's preparation, this sends off obvious warning signs it is ready to win and may even be looking for extra distance. Another example might be if a horse leads, but is 'taken on' by other horses and given little peace. He may well fail in that particular race but then find a softer run up or near the lead at his next start and come out and win, at some value!
Finding value runners is always the way professional punters have operated, there are many favourites that run that have little hope of actually winning. These horse's are referred to as "unders" (under their true odds of winning) and when identified can set you up for a nice collect if you can work around them in betting. How do we identify such 'unders'? Well, it gets back to knowing each horse and his/her particular likes and dislikes. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com thinks this is rule No.1. He explains: "Look, knowing a horse's capabilities, his likes or dislikes, his personality if you like, are keys to having half this battle (of finding value runners/winners) won".
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).
in late 2006, a review of the possibility of implementing ratings-based racing, found that Victorian trainers in all corners of the state overwhelmingly supported the retention of Ratings Based racing. This is highlighted by the fact that 94% of trainers in Victoria supported the keeping this form of handicap racing.
Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by "discretionary" handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse's weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a "ratings" adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.
In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".
Racehorses can fluctuate their form just like human athletes can. Unfortunately though, racehorses cannot talk. So we, as punters, are required to recognise signals and signs from horses at either their previous run, or pre-race, that indicate what stage physically and mentally they are at, in order to find a winner. For example, a horse charges home in a slowly run race early in it's preparation, this sends off obvious warning signs it is ready to win and may even be looking for extra distance. Another example might be if a horse leads, but is 'taken on' by other horses and given little peace. He may well fail in that particular race but then find a softer run up or near the lead at his next start and come out and win, at some value!
Finding value runners is always the way professional punters have operated, there are many favourites that run that have little hope of actually winning. These horse's are referred to as "unders" (under their true odds of winning) and when identified can set you up for a nice collect if you can work around them in betting. How do we identify such 'unders'? Well, it gets back to knowing each horse and his/her particular likes and dislikes. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com thinks this is rule No.1. He explains: "Look, knowing a horse's capabilities, his likes or dislikes, his personality if you like, are keys to having half this battle (of finding value runners/winners) won".
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).
About the Author:
David Gately, baffled by the number of "guru" outfits out there, trying to make a quick buck by selling rubbish horse racing tips, continues to offer value information at the best prices around.
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